Presidential Horse Race
With Iowa and New Hampshire behind us and before February 5th’s “Super-Tuesday” (where 22 states’ primaries/caucuses weigh-in), we’re looking at a couple of interesting moves on the campaign race-tracks in South Carolina, Nevada and Michigan.
THE DEMOCRATS:
To stand alongside the enveloping “change” theme, the issue of race has quickly become top topic in the Democratic circles. Nevada’s influential Culinary Union (40% Hispanic) has just made Clinton’s camp nervous with its endorsement of Obama. South Carolina’s significant and influential black population has traditionally been favorable to Hillary (largely from Bill’s popularity). It now, however, has favorite son John Edwards and Barack Obama’s ethnic appeal to make their state’s primary decision on January 19th more difficult. RCP Polling Data averages Obama leading by 13 points going into South Carolina, but let’s remind ourselves of polling’s predictive credibility with New Hampshire’s recent Clinton win over similarly poll-favored Obama. Clinton has Michigan’s Primary January 15th, but the Democratic National Convention stripped Michigan of its voting delegates for moving-up its primary date.
John Edwards isn’t garnering much attention amidst recent Clinton-inspired drama about her comment of Martin Luther King’s role of advancing civil rights relative to the presidential role played by Lyndon Johnson. Taking an interview in front of a classroom portrait of Dr. King, Obama was asked by The Las Vegas Sun to respond to the Clintons’ claim that he’s “distorting” the implications of her comment. Obama said he was “puzzled” over the Clintons’ “ratcheting up…rhetoric” before talking about his favorite TV show: HBO’s “The Wire”. Interestingly, the gritty drama features Baltimore’s financially-starved political leadership and law enforcement tackling pervasive drugs and social poverty with the media covering it all. Despite Edwards’ recent “all the way” proclamations, Sen. John Kerry (who Edwards ran beside as Vice Presidential running-mate in 2004) just endorsed Obama. Polling a steady 3rd in his family home state, many speculate such a showing in South Carolina will jeopardize Edwards’ candidacy and see the Democrats’ track (recently narrowed from eight) quickly become a two-horse race.
THE REPUBLICANS:
From the Republican side, South Carolina is showing a division between those whose most concerned of national security favoring McCain and those most concerned of evangelical social issues favoring Huckabee. Compared to the Democrats, it’s lower-drama week for the GOP as both McCain and Huckabee have expressed mutual respect and similar reservations about negative campaigning … unless, of course, it’s in response to Romney, but he’s focused in his family’s home state of Michigan. Mitt’s pinning survival hopes on a “Michigan is personal to me” appeal despite the Republican National Convention having similarly stripped Michigan of its national convention delegates (by half). McCain’s polling dead-even with Romney there also, however, and many believe anything but a Romney win there may signal the beginning of his candidacy’s end.
Giuliani’s “later–larger” national campaign strategy is playing-out with expectantly low polling this week while he focuses his resources toward Florida (where McCain’s gained on him) and other larger-delegate states. Despite positive debate performances lately, Thompson is steadily falling everywhere, even in South Carolina where he was once thought of as a favorite. Ron Paul, with his young and enthusiastic base still contributing financially, could remain in the race despite last-place results across the board. GOP establishment strategists hope he’ll drop sooner than later to reduce confusion on future debate stages while Democratic strategists hope the same so his small but vocal following might swing their way. It’s a wide-open race with once wide margins behind Giuliani now tighter amongst the five viable candidates.
HOME-STRETCHES:
Much will change after February. Both party’s races will be heavily influenced by where later-state voters who initially supported withdrawing candidates go next. With this in mind, the dark horse influencers may be Edwards and Huckabee. Many are betting we’ll see McCain versus Giuliani and Obama versus Clinton heading down long final stretches for their parties’ nominations. Place your own bets at greater risk. however. These races’ momentum influences are vastly different than in any previous presidential horse-races with no White House candidates, the primary/caucus season stacked so early, lower-financed campaigns surprising everyone, and race/gender issues looking prominent at the finish lines.
~ Benjamin Gipson serves as co-owner and managing partner of Rainmakers HQ, LLC, a business development and consulting firm offering project management leadership, online tools and education, and effectiveness coaching.
